Iraq Study Group--
What could happen if we “get out of Dodge?” [Worst case scenario]
Iraq security forces will split along sectarian lines, criminal element will increase, al Qaeda will thrive…citizens will be forced to choose between warring factions
Ethnic cleansing will escalate…resulting into a “devolution to three quasi-semi-autonomous illegitimate regions…Note: this is a recipe for a major regional military conflict
A couple of new “Saddam’s” will take over…and impose dictatorial power
Turkey could send troops into Northern Iraq to Prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence
Iran could send troops to restore stability and bolster the Shiites in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of the oil fields near Basra
Cause & effect--a greater Sunni-Shia conflict leads to direct military involvement by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and the Gulf States
International oil market collapses
International economic depression of mythological proportions
US will greatly damage its credibility and influence on the world stage
International terrorism will grow…Al Qaeda will be seen as great victors…A catalyst for an all out attack on Israel
Israel will attack…we will support Israel
At home the population will be sharply divided…
So what to do…
Recommendations by the Iraq Study Group:
We can still pull it off…but time is running out
Not Vietnam…stakes are higher
Arab-Israeli conflict has to be dealt with…it is a root cause of the acrimony in the region, as well as the so called “clash of civilizations.”
Two-state solution regarding Palestine and Israel has to happen, like yesterday…US needs to act in bold fashion on this issue…US needs to assure the Isarelis that we will never ever abandon them, yet we must push hard for them to get back the Golan Heights
Lebanon and Syria needs to workout a peaceful solution
US needs to make an all out effort to develop a regional mechanism that can support the fledgling democracy that is Iraq…including a major committed effort to include Iran and Syria into the diplomatic process.
Dealing with Syria and especially Iran is tricky [given that their crazy, my bad, cpf... ], but it can be done…look at Libya as a model
We need to assert to everyone involved that we are committed to a unified and territorially intact Iraq.
We need to help them set a national banking system based on our model [for example, the Federal Reserve, etc… good stuff cpf ]
All 38 other regional countries stand lose if Iraq falls apart…whereas all stand to gain from a stable, albeit “neighborly” [my words, cpf ] Iraq…the only groups that gain from a chaotic Iraq are Al Qaeda and the crooks…
Iraqi government with our support needs to “structure” an immediate system of national reconciliation…De-Baathification law passed ASAP
An international support group should be created and should include all states bordering Iraq, plus Egypt, the Gulf States, the five permanent members of the UN security council, and Germany, Japan, and South Korea, plus the UN General Secretary should appoint a special envoy that would represent the UN within the group.
US should require the Iraqi political leadership to higher levels of accountability and transparency. If these requirements are not met, economic and to some degree military support should reduced. US will open diplomatic relations with Moqtada a-Sadr and other militia and insurgent leaders, but not with Al Qaeda and/or criminal elements
FBI should set up a training facility in Iraq and train Iraqis in the art of catching bad guyz…gangstas, etc…
US Justice Dept. should help Iraqis set up a fair, transparent and workable legal justice system…based on the rule of law
Iraqis should seeks out Chuck Norris…just kiddin’
US should again emphasize that we are not interested in their oil per se an that we have no interest in maintaining military bases in Iraq. We should also emphasize that we are in Saudi Arabia at their government’s request.
US should help them set a national system for sharing the oil revenues. Oil monies should be shared equally among all Iraqis. Iraqi should encourage foreign investment in their oil fields…get on-line and join the world oil market
If all else fails…call C. Farrow, but only in the months of December, January, or March, otherwise he is bike racing…livin’ the dream…gettin’ er done…”
What could happen if we “get out of Dodge?” [Worst case scenario]
Iraq security forces will split along sectarian lines, criminal element will increase, al Qaeda will thrive…citizens will be forced to choose between warring factions
Ethnic cleansing will escalate…resulting into a “devolution to three quasi-semi-autonomous illegitimate regions…Note: this is a recipe for a major regional military conflict
A couple of new “Saddam’s” will take over…and impose dictatorial power
Turkey could send troops into Northern Iraq to Prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence
Iran could send troops to restore stability and bolster the Shiites in southern Iraq and perhaps gain control of the oil fields near Basra
Cause & effect--a greater Sunni-Shia conflict leads to direct military involvement by Saudi Arabia and Egypt and the Gulf States
International oil market collapses
International economic depression of mythological proportions
US will greatly damage its credibility and influence on the world stage
International terrorism will grow…Al Qaeda will be seen as great victors…A catalyst for an all out attack on Israel
Israel will attack…we will support Israel
At home the population will be sharply divided…
So what to do…
Recommendations by the Iraq Study Group:
We can still pull it off…but time is running out
Not Vietnam…stakes are higher
Arab-Israeli conflict has to be dealt with…it is a root cause of the acrimony in the region, as well as the so called “clash of civilizations.”
Two-state solution regarding Palestine and Israel has to happen, like yesterday…US needs to act in bold fashion on this issue…US needs to assure the Isarelis that we will never ever abandon them, yet we must push hard for them to get back the Golan Heights
Lebanon and Syria needs to workout a peaceful solution
US needs to make an all out effort to develop a regional mechanism that can support the fledgling democracy that is Iraq…including a major committed effort to include Iran and Syria into the diplomatic process.
Dealing with Syria and especially Iran is tricky [given that their crazy, my bad, cpf... ], but it can be done…look at Libya as a model
We need to assert to everyone involved that we are committed to a unified and territorially intact Iraq.
We need to help them set a national banking system based on our model [for example, the Federal Reserve, etc… good stuff cpf ]
All 38 other regional countries stand lose if Iraq falls apart…whereas all stand to gain from a stable, albeit “neighborly” [my words, cpf ] Iraq…the only groups that gain from a chaotic Iraq are Al Qaeda and the crooks…
Iraqi government with our support needs to “structure” an immediate system of national reconciliation…De-Baathification law passed ASAP
An international support group should be created and should include all states bordering Iraq, plus Egypt, the Gulf States, the five permanent members of the UN security council, and Germany, Japan, and South Korea, plus the UN General Secretary should appoint a special envoy that would represent the UN within the group.
US should require the Iraqi political leadership to higher levels of accountability and transparency. If these requirements are not met, economic and to some degree military support should reduced. US will open diplomatic relations with Moqtada a-Sadr and other militia and insurgent leaders, but not with Al Qaeda and/or criminal elements
FBI should set up a training facility in Iraq and train Iraqis in the art of catching bad guyz…gangstas, etc…
US Justice Dept. should help Iraqis set up a fair, transparent and workable legal justice system…based on the rule of law
Iraqis should seeks out Chuck Norris…just kiddin’
US should again emphasize that we are not interested in their oil per se an that we have no interest in maintaining military bases in Iraq. We should also emphasize that we are in Saudi Arabia at their government’s request.
US should help them set a national system for sharing the oil revenues. Oil monies should be shared equally among all Iraqis. Iraqi should encourage foreign investment in their oil fields…get on-line and join the world oil market
If all else fails…call C. Farrow, but only in the months of December, January, or March, otherwise he is bike racing…livin’ the dream…gettin’ er done…”
posted by Charlie Farrow at 10:12 AM
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